The Conclude Consultancy

The Need

This NHS Trust had been considering the opportunities to rationalise its estate, and had identified two facilities that were both very old, and which required substantial back-log maintenance.  Prior to the identification of this need, The Conclude Consultancy had carried out an analysis of the candidate facility using  their uniqueOCCUPANCY ANALYTICS ™ methodology.   The purpose of the analysis was to forecast potential space under-utilisation within the candidate facility.  Our work had demonstrated the probability of available capacity at each hour of the day based on a statistical analysis of the data from our model.

Methodology

The analysis of the candidate facility was based on PAS data and forecasts of growth in patient demand. Conclude, also used operational policies to study the efficiency of the clincial processes.  Working with the clinical leadership teams we studied the impacts of alternative operational policies on patient flux and from this dialogue we were able to identify the optimised process  changes that would be required within each department. From this work we produced a schedule of departments with the available capacity at each hourly period of the day.

The analysis of the existing buildings which the Trust wished to consider for redevelopment followed a similar method, but in this case we were forecasting patient demand for each service.  The challenge was to establish the best fit between the functions being provided in the candidate facility and the services to be relocated.

Our OCCUPANCY ANALYTICS ™ specialists provided the core data and this enabled a basic match to be made between the candidate facility and the services to be relocated. However, simply because there is available space within the candidate facility it obviously does not mean that it is desirable to merge the relocated service(s) into it.  Consequently, the planning specialists then assesed the functional, clinical and operational affinities between the them.  It was out of this process that we were able to obtain the best fit between available capacity and the best affinity between the functions.

Results

The table below provides an illustration of the utilsation in terms of room availability relative to each function within the candidate facility. The hours of the day (this is an extract only) are shown across the head of the table.

OCCUPANCY ANALYTICS ™ provides a mean occupancy, as well as a forecast of probability of under-utilsaed spaces. For example: a 90 % probability that in nine days in every ten there would be at least ‘x’ unused rooms over specified hours of the day,  or alternatively a 10% probability that for one day in every ten there would be up to ‘y’ rooms available over specified hours of the day. The study investigated the potential to merge existing facilities into the candidate facility, and through the affinity analysis considered the best fit.  The study is now beeing used to inform the business case for the merging of the functions in the candidate facility.

The Conclude Consultancy has recently been appointed (November 2012) to conduct an analysis for another NHS Trust, to answer a question no doubt being asked by many Trust’s at present: What operational policy changes do we need to make in order to expand capacity of an existing service, WITHOUT having to enlarge the facility?  If we do need to enlarge the facility, how much bigger do we need to make it?  The study will recommend optimised operational policies informed by our OCCUPANCY ANALYTICS ™ studies. May 2013 update: Please refer to this Case Stydy here: occupancy-analytics-optimising-endoscopy )

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